December 2009 Archives

December 9, 2009

UCLA Anderson Forecast: Double digit unemployment to continue

The UCLA Anderson Forecast for the third quarter of 2009 has just been released, and says that while this huge recession may have ended, unemployment will stay in double digits and the “negative impact of the downturn will last well into the next decade”. Unemployment going to get worse and is expected to rise to 12.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009. Though the economy will be growing in 2011, it will not be generating enough jobs to drive the unemployment rate below double digits until 2012. Economist Jerry Nickelsburg called the unemployment situation “ugly” and will remain so for some time to come. “More rapid growth than can be expected over the next twelve months would be required to bring the unemployment rate down,” he said.

There is one possible silver lining in all these dark clouds, however – exports may be improving. According to Nickelsburg, “In trade and manufacturing, there is new evidence that demand for California-produced goods is increasing. He believes that the keys to the California recovery are exports of manufactured and agricultural goods, a recovery in U.S., increased public works construction and increased investment in business equipment and software.

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